Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
